Israel's war against Iran is a gamble - and to pay off it can't afford to miss

"You come at the king, you best not miss," says Omar Little, channelling Machiavelli, in the US crime series The Wire.

The same principle applies to Israel's decision to attack Iran. Its war is a gamble - to pay off, it must be entirely successful. It cannot afford to miss.

That may seem a strange thing to say as things stand. Israel seems to be hitting its targets with devastating accuracy.

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Take the stunning campaign of decapitation: Israeli intelligence correspondent Ronen Bergman reports that Israel has developed the ability to monitor Iran's top officials "in real time".

That fearsome power is being wielded with awesome effect. Iran's military and intelligence commanders are being traced and eliminated one by one - 20 of them in the first night alone.

The destruction of Iran's air defences is also on the mark. It has left Iran's skies open to Israeli jets to destroy target after target with pinpoint accuracy.

The mission is to destroy Iran's nuclear programme, but also it seems the regime's means of repression and control.

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To be absolutely sure of success, Israel needs the regime to fall. It must destroy both Iran's ability to develop the bomb, but more importantly, its will to do so.

Fail on either front, and Iran's leaders will prioritise building a nuclear weapon. They will have to, so they can defend themselves better next time.

Their ability to build the bomb will be impossible to destroy completely, however massive the munitions Israel puts into the centrifuge halls of Natanz and Fordow.

The Iranian nuclear programme is too far developed. They have the knowledge and expertise. For as many nuclear scientists Israel kills, there are their students to replace them.

And the technology is in their favour. As one western source told the Israeli Haaretz newspaper over the weekend: "They have knowledge about the plant centrifuges.

"They don't need as many centrifuges as they used to. They can build a small plant somewhere, heavily fortified underground, maybe even in less than three years."

At some point, the Israelis will need to end their campaign. The Iranians' desire to build the bomb will then be redoubled among what's left of their regime.

The capacity to do so will have been degraded, but the know-how will remain. Toppling the regime will be the surest way of achieving Israel's aims if it ushers in a replacement not determined to go nuclear.

Israel knows that and has been going after people and places essential to the regime's apparatus of internal control and repression.

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It has been attacking energy infrastructure, too, knowing soaring energy prices may fuel social unrest and dissent.

Expect those efforts to bring down the ayatollahs to intensify - Israel has come for the king and cannot afford to miss.

(c) Sky News 2025: Israel's war against Iran is a gamble - and to pay off it can't afford to miss