Starmer, Badenoch and McSweeney: Who are the winners and losers of the Mandelson-Epstein scandal?

Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour high command may be relieved that Peter Mandelson has quit the House of Lords.

But for both the prime minister and the soon-to-be ex-peer, their humiliation and torment may be about to get even worse.

Mr Mandelson faces a full-blown probe by the Met's specialist crime team into allegations of misconduct in public office, for which the maximum penalty is life imprisonment.

Jeffrey Epstein scandal - latest

Yes, really! It's that serious.

In an interview with The Times carried out last week but published on Monday, Mandelson referred to a "handful of misguided historical emails, which I deeply regret sending".

On other claims, Lord Mandelson questioned the authenticity of the documents, citing false claims he had a US social security number, questionable US-dollar cheque payments into UK banks, incorrect beneficiary details, and multiple basic errors in dates, spelling and formatting.

The police investigation, no doubt extremely complex, could last several months, and if he's prosecuted, Mr Mandelson's agony could last years, even if he's acquitted.

The torment for the prime minister is more immediate.

He faces a potentially painful onslaught from Kemi Badenoch at Wednesday's Prime Minister's Questions, followed by a bruising Commons debate.

The PM must be cursing the parliamentary calendar, because Wednesday is an opposition day in the Commons, which means the Conservatives choose the business.

And this time the Tories are using a tactic used by Labour in opposition.

In the parliamentary jargon, it's called a humble address, which means the Tory motion demands publication of all the papers relating to Sir Keir's appointment of Mr Mandelson as ambassador to the US.

Yes, all of them! In theory, at least. A paper trail, in other words.

It's a device Labour employed with some success during the endless Commons debates on Brexit a few years back when Sir Keir was opposition leader.

This time, though, the prime minister could face a major rebellion from Labour backbenchers if he whips his MPs to vote against the Tory motion. But will he?

"I'll vote for a paper trail to be released," left-wing serial rebel Richard Burgon told Sky News. "But there shouldn't be a vote. They shouldn't be opposing the motion.

"It would be crazy to do so. We can't have a situation where the government is dragged kicking and screaming to do the right thing."

The government is not falling into the Tory trap, however. It will commit to publishing documents about the Mandelson appointment.

But ministers have tabled an amendment to the Conservative motion proposing an exemption for papers affecting national security.

The PM's amendment adds: "Except papers prejudicial to UK national security of international relations."

Which could, of course, mean there are a large number of exemptions. Too many, the Conservatives may claim.

Kemi Badenoch claims the normal procedures were "waived away" so the prime minister could appoint Mr Mandelson as ambassador, despite his close relationship with a convicted paedophile.

"Let's see all the correspondence, emails, mobile phone records," she said. "We want to see everything."

The Tories also plan to turn up the heat on the PM's controversial chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, a man who's already the pantomime villain of Labour's woes and blunders.

"Morgan McSweeney, a close protégé of Peter Mandelson, was involved in the vetting," said the Tory leader. "Morgan McSweeney is a man whose fingerprints are all over this embarrassment."

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For the PM, the Mandelson nightmare couldn't have come at a worse time. His poll ratings are through the floor, he faces a horrible by-election on 26 February and horrendous local and national elections in May.

The mavericks and malcontents on the Labour benches claim the only question about Sir Keir's survival is when his mutineers move to oust him: after the by-election or after the May elections.

McSweeney, therefore, could be a convenient scapegoat, sacrificed to save an embattled prime minister.

A No 10 svengali dumped just like Alastair Campbell, Andy Coulson and Dominic Cummings were before him.

The only winners from the Mandelson fiasco are Westminster's opposition parties. Not just the Conservatives, either. The Liberal Democrats and Scottish National party led demands for the police investigation.

Despite the PM's tough talk and his claim that Mandelson "let his country down", a damning verdict of his bad judgement in him could mean he ends up being as big a loser as the Prince of Darkness himself.

(c) Sky News 2026: Starmer, Badenoch and McSweeney: Who are the winners and losers of the Mandelson-Epstein scanda