Gorton and Denton by-election: Farage and Polanski could both inflict huge damage on Labour

Sir Keir Starmer has created, from nowhere, a pivotal by-election by his own hand.

He owns the outcome, because of his decision to block Andy Burnham - someone voters on the streets of Gorton and Denton thought by far to be the strongest candidate.

And nobody can anticipate the result, which Labour MPs think could trigger a coup against the prime minister should Labour come third.

Read more:
PM defends Burnham block
Reform and Greens eye major by-election scalp

The east Manchester seat, with a 13,000 majority, has been Labour since before the Second World War, once regarded as an irredeemably poor, post-industrial area that was home to railway workers.

While some parts remain poor, others are the beneficiary of the economic improvement of Greater Manchester as a whole, as well as an area that has seen the upside of Emirati millions around the adjacent Manchester City stadium.

And as such, it is a melting pot of many differing communities, once united by Labour politics.

On 26 February, we will see if this remains the case.

Pressure from left and right

The constituency, northeast of the city, is shaped like a hammer, according to Rob Ford, the Manchester University political scientist.

The handle of the hammer, in the south of the seat, has several wards that are very ethnically diverse, large Muslim populations, but also large populations of students and young graduates.

"That looks like exactly the kind of territory where Labour has been losing support to the Greens in national polling recently," said Ford.

Towards the head of the hammer, which is Gorton, and the wards in Tameside, it's much whiter, 90% white, and much more working class, with fewer graduates.

"That looks like the kind of terrain where Labour has been losing ground to Reform recently," Ford said.

Labour MPs up to Andrew Gwynne, who stepped down on Thursday, were sufficiently able to unite both parts of the community to ensure the seat was perpetually Labour.

But with politics fracturing, populism rising, could a new approach work?

Professor Ford said: "You've got very different, highly charged local issues in the two halves of the seat. In the Manchester part, the more Muslim and at young professional part, there'll be a lot of campaigning on Gaza, particularly with the Workers Party picking up a high-profile candidate in the Gorton part.

"You may see a lot of quite polarising identity politics from Reform UK, potentially on issues like crime, grooming, gangs, immigration and so forth."

All of which point to a campaign led by Reform slugging it out with the Greens, and none of that looks like the campaign Starmer's Labour would run.

As the leader of Manchester City Council, the choice of many Labour MPs, also ducks this race, it is less clear given the national political backdrop how the party can hang on.

Joshi Herman, founder of the Manchester Mill, a journalism website with deep links in the community, said: "I think if Andy Burnham had been the Labour candidate, they would have been strong favourites to win here."

While not guaranteed due to the national polling picture, he says Burnham is a "very popular mayor, and he goes down well in places like this".

A test for Polanski

But can the Greens, the face of the populist left, inhabit a space that even Burnham voters might be attracted to?

At a rally on Tuesday night, Zack Polanski called this the "blockbuster" by-election of this parliament - as he commenced his first electoral test as leader.

Translating membership numbers and polling figures into a real result would be a massive coup for the Green leader, who is pitching to be the heir to Jeremy Corbyn's shade of Labour Party.

He had three times the number of supporters as the lunchtime unveiling of Reform UK's candidate.

But can the Greens show they are a party of the north as well as the southern middle class?

Meanwhile, Reform unveiled academic and TV pundit Matt Goodwin as their candidate.

They mentioned but did not dwell on more contentious, populist campaign techniques like grooming gangs in their news conference, instead preaching to voters who think Britain is broken and only their brand of radicalism can fix it.

But the big question is just how hard Labour will try to win, given the prime minister's own future is at stake.

They could throw everything at it - Angela Rayner is a neighbour, along with Lisa Nandy and chief whip Jonathan Reynolds. Starmer himself could go.

Do they put in the money, and force the visits, that they did in Batley and Spen, the last time the Labour leader's future was on the line in a by-election?

Or do they quietly let this one slip, knowing it's a diversion and a costly lost cause, whatever the consequence?

All this is at stake on 26 February. It is clear that what matters will be how this by-election is fought, not just who wins on the night.

(c) Sky News 2026: Gorton and Denton by-election: Farage and Polanski could both inflict huge damage on Labour